OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2019: The male acting awards

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PART 5: THE MALE ACTING AWARDS

This hostless and apparently commercial-hampered and time-constrained 91st Academy Awards arrive on Sunday, February 25th. It’s time to breakdown each category and put some stone cold predictions into digital ink. Throughout the busy awards season, this website’s 2019 Awards Tracker has been my workspace to tally all the early award winners. That prognostication data is cited in these predictions. This column examines the races for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. As I say every year, stick with me and I will win you your Oscar pool!

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Mahershala Ali for Green Book, Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliott for A Star is Born, Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Sam Rockwell for Vice

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 20- Grant, 14- Ali, 5- Elliott, 5- Steven Yeun for Burning, 4- Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther, 2- Hugh Grant for Paddington 2,

2- Russell Hornsby for The Hate U Give, 1- Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy,

1- Josh Hamilton for Eighth Grade

Who was snubbed: It feels like every year, you could double these acting fields to ten and still have five additional quality nominees. I’ve been a big Hugh Grant supporter for Paddington 2 all year. Michael B. Jordan was no Heath Ledger, but his Black Panther villain was outstanding. I know I was rooting for a second consecutive Oscar nomination for the young Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. On top of all those, there’s no refuting Steven Yeun’s number of award season wins.

Happy to be there: The reigning Best Supporting Actor Sam Rockwell, last year’s winner for (and I thought I wouldn’t have to write this long title anymore) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had one good scene of caricature as the 44th President of the United States of America. His performance is easily the least and slightest of the nominees.

Who should win: The Road House and Big Lebowski fanboy in me wants to pick Sam Elliott, but even he’s not the best here. The fullest and most affecting performance of these final five belongs to Richard E. Grant of Can You Ever Forgive Me? He’s a respected actor and was the potent spike of Nicole Holofcener’s little film. As a career actor of stage and screen, this was his best and he deserves this.

Who will win: Grant and everyone else are going to lose to who will become a new and formidable two-time Oscar winner in Mahershala Ali for Green Book. It’s rare, even for a supporting award, for such a recent winner (two years ago for Moonlight) to be chosen right back again, but Ali’s BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG wins (all over Grant) seal this second trophy for his mantle.

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BEST ACTOR

The nominees: Christian Bale for Vice, Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate, Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Viggo Mortensen for Green Book

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 31- Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, 8- Bale, 8- Malek, 2- Cooper, 2- Mortensen, 2- Marcello Fonte for Dogman, and eight more with one win.

Who was snubbed: Right there on the same level of crime as Won’t You Be My Neighbor? not getting called, there is no denying the egregious slight of Ethan Hawke. In my seven years of doing this “awards tracker” data chasing, I’ve never seen an acting favorite on this level of season dominance be excluded from the field. It’s a shame for Hawke and his career-best performance. Over and over, I’ve been saying it in these prediction columns. First Reformed is an underseen and lesser-marketed indie film going up against studio dollars. Another argument could be made for John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman.

Happy to be there: Willem Dafoe looks like he got a makeup nomination to pad his resume after losing as the favorite for Best Supporting Actor two years ago for The Florida Project. His film has the smallest viewership and his performance the least accolades of anyone else here.

Who should win: I was impressed as much as anyone by Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney in Vice. As arguably one of the best actors of his generation, Bale deserves to have a lead actor Oscar win to go with his supporting trophy for The Fighter. But, do you know who here doesn’t have even one Oscar against seven total career nominations? Bradley Cooper. A Star is Born began this awards season as the popular public favorite. Short of Best Original Song and an upset somewhere else, it’s going to win nothing else Sunday night. This is the place I would award all that Bradley Cooper did to improve upon the well-worn story he adapted, directed, and starred.

Who will win: Without Hawke, this became one of the most interesting contests of the entire Oscars. Golden Globe winners Christian Bale and Rami Malek from Bohemian Rhapsody filled in the void. It’s odd in a small way that the dueling favorites are coming from two polarizing and lesser-regarded films where their negatives are outshining their positives, including their very deserving acting performances. The SAG Award is the nearly ironclad separator here. That huge win went to Rami Malek. Per tradition, I think 2018 Best Actress winner Frances McDormand calls his name Sunday night and seals it.

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NEXT: The female acting awards!

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2019: The writing and directing awards

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PART 4: THE WRITING AND DIRECTING AWARDS

This hostless and apparently commercial-hampered and time-constrained 91st Academy Awards arrive on Sunday, February 25th. It’s time to breakdown each category and put some stone cold predictions into digital ink. Throughout the busy awards season, this website’s 2019 Awards Tracker has been my workspace to tally all the early award winners. That prognostication data is cited in these predictions. This column examines the screenplay and directing awards. As I say every year, stick with me and I will win you your Oscar pool!

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The nominees: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara for The Favourite, Paul Schrader for First Reformed, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Curry, and Peter Farrelly for Green Book, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Adam McKay for Vice

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 16- The Favourite, 12- First Reformed, 6- Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade, 3- Boots Riley for Sorry to Bother You, 3- Green Book, six others with one win

Who was snubbed: The glaring contender from the awards season left out here is first-timer Bon Burnham and his brilliant and bold heart punch that is Eighth Grade. I’ve been saying it throughout these prediction articles for 2019, but a big level of domestic independent film was virtually ignored by the Oscars in favor of studio-backed indie shingles. The one breakthrough nominee is First Reformed from the same A24 hub as Eighth Grade. Bo will have to relish winning the Writers Guild of America award from his peers. An Oscar win would have been the better compliment.

Happy to be there: No matter how personal, unique, and soul-cleansing Roma was for Alfonso Cuaron, it’s lack of narrative is not a top-level screenwriting piece worthy of this spot. This was a bandwagon nomination.

Who should win: I normally look down on those Oscar moments (see Best Actress next post) that crown a fair-to-middling late-career success for an elderly-ish performer/artist that caps a career that likely deserved a rightful statuette far sooner. I’d make an exception on my usual frowning for Paul Schrader. His simmering disquiet on First Reformed was masterful. Schrader and the film deserve this win. He’ll get beat by a piece of poppycock.

Who will win: This category has been quite the semi-unpredictable roller coaster. First Reformed led early and then The Favourite from Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara surged ahead and hasn’t looked weak, save for Burnham’s surprise win from the WGA where The Favourite was even nominated due to odd qualification rulints. I think Davis and McNamara hold on to win, but, boy, I’d love to see a senior Schrader step to that stage in irascible shock.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The nominees: Joel and Ethan Coen for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters for A Star is Born

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 10- BlacKkKlansman, 8- Can You Ever Forgive Me?, 7- If Beale Street Could Talk, 4- Audrey Wells for The Hate U Give, 2- Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, Peter Fellows, and Fabien Nury for The Death of Stalin, and four others with one win

Who was snubbed: To keep beating that forgotten American indie drum, Audrey Wells deserved to crash this party as the second primary female nominee for The Hate U Give to join Nicole Holofcener. Again, it, like many others, was too underseen. Something that wasn’t underseen at all and has a fair argument for being here is the duo of Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole for Black Panther. Comics are real adaptation sources too.

Happy to be there: Four-time Oscar winners Joel and Ethan Coen, are here purely by reputation as Academy darlings. Everything they touch gets nominated. They are the Meryl Streep of the writing and directing pool. Their nomination counts as a bonus get of respect for Netflix following the Roma flagship wave.

Who should win: This is a place where I look at who had the hardest work to bring to the screen. In my eyes, James Baldwin’s prose and poetry had the highest degree of difficulty with the biggest risk of success. My vote would go to Barry Jenkins and If Beale Street Could Talk, my #1 film of 2018.

Who will win: Folks, like the original side, this is a two-horse and unpredictable race. If Best Director is as locked as it looks (see below), this is the perfect and proper spot to honor Spike Lee for the lightning rod that is BlacKkKlansman, along with his writing partners of Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, and Kevin Willmott. Doubt has been cast by the chance to recognize a strong female writer in Nicole Holofcener for her collaboration with Jeff Whitty on Can You Ever Forgive Me? Holocenter and Whitty just shocked Lee and company with the WGA win. That’s a big feather that could be the indicator of an upset brewing. When it doubt, follow the money and Vegas still has BlacKkKlansman.  I’m keeping my money on Spike Lee.

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BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees: Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War, Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Adam McKay for Vice

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 34- Cuaron, 5- Lee, 3- Lynne Ramsay for You Were Never Really Here. 2- Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, 2- Debra Granik for Leave No Trace, 2- Ryan Coogler for Black Panther, 2- Pawlikowski, and six others with one win

Who was snubbed: In the wake of #MeToo and Patty Jenkins’ success last year with Wonder Woman, one would love to see female representation in this film in the form of Lynne Ramsay or Debra Granik. However, hit the “but” bell again, they were another pair of underseen independent films that didn’t get the promotional push matching the others nominated. The more popular snubs were directing rookie Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born and Black Panther’s Ryan Coogler. In a place where star power earns seats at tables, it was surprising not to see either popular name included.

Happy to be there: The spot-stealer was Pawlikowski as an unprecedented second inclusion of a foreign language film in the Best Director category. Some will call that a just honor and others will call that an indictment on the domestic art scene. Make it both with a congratulations to him and “try harder next time” shot across the bow to the rest of the working talent.

Who should win: Personally, I think a bigger sign of respect for Spike Lee than a screenplay Oscar victory would be a straight-up win for Best Director. No black director has ever won this award and BlacKkKlansman is crafted strong enough, intricate enough as a constructed film, and worthy enough as a symbol to be the pioneer.

Who will win: It would be a monumental upset if anyone other than Roma’s Alfonso Cuaron won this prize. He has swept every major directing award all season, including the peak Directors Guild of America win within the last few weeks. Cuaron is respected and he poured his heart out into Roma. This will be his second Best Director Oscar, putting him in a class with Steven Spielberg, Billy Wilder, David Lean, Clint Eastwood, Oliver Stone, Ang Lee, Elia Kazan, Alejandro G. Inarritu, and others as two-time winners. Only John Ford (4), Frank Capra (3), and William Wyler (3) have more than two. Cuaron is only 57 and could easily join that level in the next two decades.

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NEXT: The female acting awards!

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2019: The visual and artistic categories

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PART 3: THE VISUAL AND ARTISTIC CATEGORIES

This hostless and apparently commercial-hampered and time-constrained 91st Academy Awards arrive on Sunday, February 25th. It’s time to breakdown each category and put some stone cold predictions into digital ink. Throughout the busy awards season, this website’s 2019 Awards Tracker has been my workspace to tally all the early award winners. That prognostication data is cited in these predictions. This column examines the visual and artistic film categories of visual effects, makeup, hair-styling, costumes, sets, editing, and camerawork. As I say every year, stick with me and I will win you your Oscar pool!

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The nominees: Lukasz Zal for Cold War, Robbie Ryan for The Favourite, Caleb Deschanel for Never Look Away, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Matthew Libatique for A Star is Born

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 28- Cuaron, 2- Zal, 1- Libatique, 1- Monika Lenczewska for Under the Tree

Who was snubbed: I highly notice and enjoy good cinematography. Two superior choices and one for-the-fun-of-it pick stand out for me as better choices. La La Land cinematographer winner Linus Sandgren deserved a crack at another trophy with his pastoral and claustrophobic work on First Man. Rachel Morrison became the first-ever female nominee in this field last year for Mudbound and she could have been here again with Black Panther. Lastly, a wild and shake the old fogeys nominee could have been Benjamin Loeb for his demonic neon on Mandy.

Happy to be there: Other than almost being cut from the broadcast, everyone not named Cuaron gets there “it’s an honor just being nominated” certificate to the clear frontrunner on the data table.

Who should win: The winner is a near-certainty and easily a worthy best, so I’ll add a wish and vouch for another contender in Matthew Libatique’s work on A Star is Born. I loved the movie’s POV to stay intimate and not float higher around the celebrity sphere it was depicting. The orbiting tightness was really striking and unique.

Who will win: In my review, I called Alfonso Cuaron manning his own camera (over longtime collaborator Emmanuel Lubezki) on Roma the best cinematography work I saw last year despite not having a speck of color on it. Cuaron’s edge to edge and front to back depth of action is on another level.

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BEST EDITING

The nominees: John Ottman for Bohemian Rhapsody, Yorgos Mavropsardis for The Favourite, Barry Brown Alexander for BlacKkKlansman, Patrick J. Don Vito for Green Book, Hank Corwin for Vice

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 6- Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough for Roma

3- Tom Cross for First Man, 2- Eddie Hamilton for Mission: Impossible — Fallout, and eleven others with one win.

Who was snubbed: While I think its stunning depth of timing and movement was more about its cinematography, I cannot deny the subtle perfection of Roma’s editing, but that’s not my real personal pick. That distinction goes to Searching for seamlessly and creatively blending the layers of apps and windows in its screens-only dramatic thriller. The movie took ten times longer to edit than shoot, which remarkably shows the effort to achieve it’s look and effect. If the Academy wanted something larger than Searching, First Man was a very deserving piece of work as well.

Happy to be there: Nothing about the simplistic Green Book screams editing achievement. It’s about as standard and simple as films get compared to the other far more challenging pictures.

Who should win: This movie is getting flak for the editing that happened in the screenwriting office, but what isn’t disputable is the clean transitions and concert recreation construction of Bohemian Rhapsody. That LiveAid finale concert alone is stunning editing.

Who will win: Without the three most-honored editing winners (Roma, First Man, Mission: Impossible — Fallout) not included for the Oscars, this becomes a guessing game category. The Vegas odds and my gut says this is the one bone all night thrown in the direction of Vice if only for the cleverness of putting its memory bounces together with skill and a fourth-wall narrator. It won an Eddie Award along with The Favourite, so toss a coin.

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The nominees: Hannah Beachler for Black Panther, Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas for First Man, Fiona Crombie for The Favourite, John Myhre and Gordon Sim for Mary Poppins Returns, Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez for Roma

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 7- The Favourite, 5- Black Panther, and five others with one win

Who was snubbed: I love seeing Black Panther on here, but this traditionally a category where comic book movies and their wild creativity get overlooked. I’d take Aquaman or Avengers: Infinity War in this final five, even over the eventual winner.

Happy to be there: Much like its sound nomination, this feels like a padded stat for Roma. The movie was sharp with its period design, but not one of the five best of the year.

Who should win: There is no doubt in my mind that Black Panther is the best of this category. The incredible mergers of African textures with futuristic flourishes to create the many wonders of Wakanda is second to none. This shouldn’t even be close and I hate what it’s going to lose to.

Who will win: This happens way too often, but the stuffy and dusty period piece is going to win. The Favourite is straight-up robbing from the masses.

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BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The nominees: Mary Zophres for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Ruth E. Carter for Black Panther, Sandy Powell for The Favourite, Sandy Powell for Mary Poppins Returns, Alexander Byrne for Mary Queen of Scots

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 4- Black Panther, 2- The Favourite

Who was snubbed: Much like production design, I think comic films get the shaft. I’d put Aquaman here over any of the five except for the “should win” pick coming soon. The barnacled and bronzed armors and textures matched with the sea-faring sleek were too good to ignore.

Happy to be there: Two costume design veterans are here by reputation alone. Three-time nominee Mary Zophres and 14-time double 2019 nominee (and three-time winner) Sandy Powell are poaching spots from new blood.

Who should win: For the second category in a row, this should be a Black Panther certainty. Just like the sets, the combination of tribal and modern was striking on all kinds of details and levels.

Who will win: But once again, it’s going to lose to the puffy dresses and corsets of a period piece. Expect The Favourite to steal another one. I’d love to see this change.

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BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR-STYLING

The nominees: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 1- Vice, 1- Black Panther

Who was snubbed: I say this every year, but it is asinine that the Academy can’t give this category a full five nominees each year. There is no harm in adding two more honorees. Put Aquaman and Black Panther in this field.

Happy to be there: Border is your obscure underseen film that gets a “excuse me, which one?” headscratch from even ardent film fans.

Who should win and will win: If all we have are these three, go ahead and give golden credit to the remarkable transformations given to Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Amy Adams, Sam Rockwell, and Tyler Perry in Vice. That’s your one bone thrown to Adam McKay and company.

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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 6- Avengers: Infinity War, 4- Black Panther, 3- Annihilation, 2- First Man, and four others with one win

Who was snubbed: Feel free to rename this third Oscar Prediction article the “Aquaman Admirers and Academy Antagonizers Assembly.” Director James Wan let the Oscar powers-that-be have it when his superhero blockbuster didn’t even make it past the shortlist. I’d be pissed too, especially considering the “happy” pick next.

Happy to be there: They nominated the wrong CGI bear to put the unremarkable Winnie-the-Pooh from Christopher Robin over the zest and fat better work of Paddington 2. This reeks of another Disney fix to the conspira was theorists.

Who should win: I admire when a film can use traditional and newfangled techniques that are not all CGI to create its visual adornments. That’s First Man with its LED-lit backgrounds and subtle layers making the moonscapes realities.

Who will win: Volume and pizazz win with Avengers: Infinity War. Voters will probably rave about the performance capture of Josh Brolin as Thanos, which is hypocritical in my eyes after failing to reward three Planet of the Apes remakes for superior work in the same field over the last decade. But then, I check the label and see Disney above Avengers and know why this bet is safe.

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NEXT: The writing and directing awards

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS: The minor film categories

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PART 2: THE MINOR FILM CATEGORIES

This host-less and apparently commercial-hampered and time-constrained 91st Academy Awards arrive on Sunday, February 25th. It’s time to breakdown each category and put some stone cold predictions into digital ink. Throughout the busy awards season, this website’s 2019 Awards Tracker has been my workspace to tally all the early award winners. That prognostication data is cited in these predictions. This column examines the minor film categories of foreign film, documentaries, animated films, and short films. As I say every year, stick with me and I will win you your Oscar pool!

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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The nominees: Capernaum, Cold War, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 33- Roma, 5- Shoplifters, 4- Cold War, 4- Burning

Who was snubbed: In a crowded and notable field, Burning is a high-profile film that is celebrated enough to deserve a spot.

Happy to be there: Though there are great films here, anything not named Roma should be happy to have their 15 seconds of mention against the Netflix juggernaut.

Who should win and who will win: I’ve heard much love bestowed upon Cold War and Shoplifters, but this is undoubtedly an award for Roma. The proud country of Mexico has the second most nominations (eight to Israel’s 12) without an Oscar win for Best Foreign Language Film. This is the special film and place to break that drought.

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 28- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse, 11- Isle of Dogs, 3- Incredibles 2, and three others with one win

Who was snubbed: I’ll drop a little love for Big Fish & Begonia, a small-scale Chinese fantasy that was really heartfelt and rich in myth. It has the deserving artistry and connectability to be included.

Happy to be there: It seems like every year, one foreign gem gets to be the token outlier, even if they (and others) deserve to be there. Mirai gets the “never heard of it” blurt-out from regular American couches this Sunday.

Who should win and will win: I was late to the party to seeing Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, but, hot damn, was it as stellar and brilliant as advertised. I don’t know how anyone watching it cannot see its standout qualities above a pair of Mouse House sequels and an underwhelming Wes Anderson entry. This might be the most certain win of the whole night. If you hear Ralph Breaks the Internet or Incredibles 2 named instead, you can fully start the Disney-Oscar Conspiracy cult and it would be warranted.

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The nominees: Free Solo, Hale County This Morning This Evening, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, RBG

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 29- Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 8- Minding the Gap, 3- Shirkers, 2- Hale County This Morning, This Evening, 2- Three Identical Strangers, 2- RBG, 2- Free Solo, 2- Quincy, and 5 others with one win

Who was snubbed: Blowing through my usual restraint, I’m diving into high hyperbole here. It is a crime against humanity and God himself to snub the Fred Rogers biography Won’t You Be My Neighbor? It’s fine to cite the merits of other films, but look at that data. 29 critics groups and awards-voting bodies aren’t crazy. The Academy is.

Happy to be there: Looking at that same data, the only nominee to not win at least something this season is Of Fathers and Sons. Call that the Fred Rogers spot-stealer.

Who should win: For the “should” spot, I’m totally going to be a Chicago homer for a few sentences and root for the skateboarding doc Minding the Gap from Bing Liu. The Land of Lincoln could use a win.

Who will win: Without Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, this has actually become a wildly unpredictable category. Frontrunners even larger than Neighbor have died on this hill, throwing trends out the window, to something obscure over the last few years. I think this year goes “normal”-ish with a win for spectacle going to Free Solo, the outstanding and IMAX-sized mountain climbing documentary that has had likely the biggest theatrical reach of the five nominees. I’m betting on the hunch that it’s the one nominee most of the voters have seen.

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The nominees: Detainment, Fauve, Marguerite, Mother, Skin

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 1- Matria, 1- The Years, 1- Three Centimetres

Who was snubbed: I’ve been dipping my toes in short films over these last few years. The one five-star short I rated in 2018 was a little thriller called The Photographer. I have no clue if it was submitted or eligible, but it impressed the heck out of me.

Happy to be there: This was one of the four awards the Oscar producers planned to hand out during a commercial break, so you could say everyone should be relieved to be saved.

Who should win and will win: Marguerite is an impressive little story of unrequited longing and love that I think will resonate with voters this year. It’s a great post-#MeToo dramatic yarn in this obscure category.

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BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The nominees: Animal Behaviour, Bao, Late Afternoon, One Small Step, Weekends

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 1- Weekends

Who was snubbed: This is a shout-out to friend-of-the-page and fellow critic Aaron White of Feelin’ Film who recommended the non-nominated Lost & Found to me after being able to view and review all five of the final nominees for press. Boy, was he right about the stop-motion charmer being better than all five here. See it for yourself here.

Happy to be there: After seeing all five, I can say this is a stellar field, one better than previous years. Not a single one is a dud. The “least” one that could have been swapped for Lost & Found was Animal Behaviours.

Who should win: Call me a sucker for celebrating traditional hand-drawn animation in this day and age, but Late Afternoon tells a marvelous little generational story behind Alzheimer’s that has lovely visuals that fit a stirring story. It’s not flashy, but it was the most affecting of the nominees for me. Equally wonderful in the feels department was the dreamy astronaut story One Small Step a cute CGI entry made by some Pixar alumni.

Who will win: The awards data citing the industry winner of the Annie Award points to Weekends being the best. Like Late Afternoon it has an old style done magnificently to be minimalistic yet deep. That said, I’m calling for the populist upstart. Bao, the semi-creepy smothering mother story from Pixar that played in front of Incredibles 2, has likely been seen by the most voters. I think its popularity contest beats Weekends’ prestige. I’d love to be wrong here.

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

The nominees: Black Sheep, End Game, Lifeboat, A Night in the Garden, Period. End of Sentence

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: No major award data

Who was snubbed and happy to be there: Welcome to what is annually the most obscure minor film award of the event. Even many of the most devout cinephiles couldn’t name you five documentary shorts, let alone five from the last year. As always, this category should be happy to exist next to its feature big brother.

Who should win and who will win: This has been what I like to call the “dart board category.” Anyone with a tail to pin on a donkey will be making a guess as good as the next player. I let the betting Vegas odds tilt me to this one. The bookmakers say Black Sheep and I’ll follow suit.

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NEXT: THE VISUAL AND ARTISTIC CATEGORIES

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2019: The music and sound categories

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PART 1: THE MUSIC AND SOUND CATEGORIES

This hostless and apparently commercial-hampered and time-constrained 91st Academy Awards arrive on Sunday, February 25th. It’s time to breakdown each category and put some stone cold predictions into digital ink. Throughout the busy awards season, this website’s 2019 Awards Tracker has been my workspace to tally all the early award winners. That prognostication data is cited in these predictions. This column examines the music and sound categories of score, score, sound mixing, and sound editing. As I say every year, stick with me and I will win you your Oscar pool!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The nominees: Terence Blanchard for BlacKkKlansman, Ludwig Goransson for Black Panther, Nicholas Britell for If Beale Street Could Talk, Alexandre Desplat for Isle of Dogs, Marc Shaiman for Mary Poppins Returns

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 11- Britell, 7- Justin Hurwitz for First Man, 2- Thom Yorke for Suspiria, and seven others tied with one win

Who was snubbed: Without question, Justin Hurwitz’s First Man score deserves to be here. Many, including myself, feel it should be the outright winner. It’s gorgeous work that fills both the grand suspense and quiet introspection of Damien Chazelle’s film with rapture.

Happy to be there: That Marc Shaiman nomination for Mary Poppins Returns feels and looks like a Disney homer pick for ABC primetime. This is Shaiman’s seventh Oscar nomination and first since, get this for a tonal opposite, 1999’s South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut.

Who should win: I adore the film and score that I think “will” win, but I think honoring Ludwig Goransson ethnic infusion of a Black Panther score would be a nice win for the film and for the excellent music that often goes unrewarded from comic book movies.

Who will win: Goransson could indeed win, but the jazzy score of Nicholas Britell for If Beale Street Could Talk has shown the most success in this category through the awards season. With Hurwitz not even in the race, this makes Britell the betting favorite and a much-deserved winner.

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BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The nominees: “All the Stars” by Kendrick Lamar for Black Panther, “I’ll Fight” by Diane Warren and Jennifer Hudson for RBG, “The Place Where the Lost Things Go” by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman for Mary Poppins Returns, “Shallow” by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga for A Star is Born, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 9- “Shallow,” 1- “All the Stars,” 1- “Suspirium “ by Thom Yorke for Suspiria

Who was snubbed: Followers of my page know the written love I’ve typographically sung about Hearts Beat Loud. Unfortunately, and you will see this trend throughout all of the award categories this year, a huge cross-section or class of American independent films were mostly ignored. The three main songs from Hearts Beat Loud all would have been outstanding nominees.

Happy to be there: Everything not named A Star is Born should feel lucky for even being noticed versus the popular Warner Bros. hit. If the studio wanted to, Bradley Cooper’s film could have swept all five of these spots.

Who should win and will win: I will always favor an original song that is key to the plot and not just a packaged hit that plays in the credits. You can’t get a more key or essential song in its matching film this year than “Shallow” from A Star is Born. Its win is automatic against this minuscule field. Nothing else has a pulse even close.

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BEST SOUND EDITING

The nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 2- A Quiet Place

Who was snubbed: I’d love to see some true horror (A Quiet Place is mild there) get love in these atmospheric categories. Hereditary would have been a keen choice and something bonkers like Mandy would have been even better.

Happy to be there: After being ignored in all of the major categories, this is the one place where A Quiet Place gets its name mentioned. In contrast to the bombast elsewhere, it purposefully did the most with the least in this category

Who should win and will win: Speaking of another under-nominated film, First Man deserved better than simply attention in the few technical areas it was recognized. It’s best feature was its sound, where ever rattle and shimmy shook audience nerves. Watch out for Bohemian Rhapsody, but this is where the superior technical film actually wins.

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BEST SOUND MIXING

The nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born

AWARDS TRACKER DATA: 2- A Quiet Place

Who was snubbed: Let it be said again that A Quiet Place deserved better and more attention. I also think animated films get the cold shoulder in this category when they shouldn’t. The soundscapes of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse or Incredibles 2 would be better nominees.

Happy to be there: Though its score-less use of only amplified ambient sound is tremendous, this was a stat-padding nomination for Roma. It deserves to be a finalist, but it likely has the least chance of winning.

Who should win: To match the Sound Editing category, the superior audio film of the five is First Man. I know I’ve screwed up predictions before where I’ll miss the flip-flop of Editing and Mixing winners. I’m tempted to hedge my bets and go with the Neil Armstrong film for both, but I’ll dare to diverge.

Who will win: I think this is a place where Bohemian Rhapsody sneaks an artistic/technical win. The Queen biopic won the Best Sound Mixing industry award this past week from the Cinema Audio Society. That’s enough for me to check its box for Sunday.

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NEXT: THE MINOR FILM CATEGORIES

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